Heading into my 39th season of covering high school football in Harlan County, one tradition I continue is my preseason predictions. The job seems to become more difficult each year with only two teams instead of the four I followed going back to my own high school days. I will make yet another attempt with the season scheduled to open on Friday.
Harlan County (4-6)
A move from 4A to 5A has both positive and negative implications. Getting away from Johnson Central and Corbin will be good, but District 8 in 5A is one of the toughest in the state with Southwestern, Pulaski County, North Laurel and South Laurel. The Bears beat Pulaski, North and Southwestern on their way to their most recent regional title in 2017, but HC will be an underdog against all three at this point.
The hard truth is the Bears don’t have an “easy” game on the schedule. South Laurel is the only team on the schedule that the Bears beat last year, but this season’s game is in London, so every game will be a challenge.
I’ll take the Bears in a close one at Middlesboro to open the season, then rank them as the slight underdog the following week at Hazard. Harlan County had a terrible second half in last year’s loss at Whitley County, but I will give the Bears the edge in the rematch. Harlan County once owned Clay County, but the Tigers have won the last two meetings and will likely be favored again this year at Manchester with quarterback Tate Rice back for his senior year. I’ll give HC the edge at home against Lawrence County, but that one will also be very tough.
I’ll pick the Bears fourth in District 8 with a win over South Laurel. This would put Harlan County in the playoffs again and a matchup against what should be more winnable games against District 7 opponents.
Harlan (5-5)
Coming off their best season in several years, the Dragons hope to build on that success and will have a schedule with a mixture of tough and not so difficult games. Harlan should have no trouble in Week 1 against a Hancock County, Tenn., team that hasn’t played varsity football the past two years. Harlan will have a much tougher time in its home opener against a 4A Clay County squad. Winning on the road at Pike Central won’t be easy, and I’ll take the Hawks, even though it could go either way. Leslie County edged the Dragons last year and it could go either way this season, but I will give the edge to Leslie with Landry Collett back at quarterback for his junior season. Even though I know nothing about Johnson County, Tenn., a new opponent on Harlan’s schedule, I will take the Dragons at home.
The district schedule starts on Sept. 22, and I will pick Harlan to split its four games, with wins over Pineville and Lynn and losses to Middlesboro and Williamsburg, even though this could be the year Harlan breaks through against the Jackets. I will also take Harlan in a slight upset the final week of the season against 5A South Laurel.